Müller, B., Johnson, L., Kreuer, D. (2017). Maladaptive outcomes of climate insurance in agriculture. Global Environmental Change 46, 23-33. doi. Interactive map.

Schulze, J., Müller, B., Groeneveld, J., Grimm, V. (2017). Agent-Based Modelling of Social-Ecological Systems: Achievements, Challenges, and a Way Forward. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20(2), 8. doi.

Groeneveld, J., Müller, B., Buchmann, C.M., Dressler, G., Guo, C., Hase, J. N., Hoffmann, F., John, F., Klassert, C., Lauf, T., Liebelt, V., Nolzen, H., Pannicke, N., Schulze, J., Weise, H., Schwarz, N. (2017). Theoretical foundations of human decision-making in agent-based land use models – A review. Environmental Modelling & Software 87, 39-48. doi.

Schlüter, M., Baeza, A., Dressler, G., Frank, K., Groeneveld, J., Jager, W., Janssen, M.A., McAllister, R.R.J., Müller, B., Orach, K., Schwarz, N., Wijermans, N. (2017). A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems. Ecological Economics 131, 21-35. doi.

Sun, Z., Lorscheid, I., Millington, J.D., Lauf, S., Magliocca, N.R., Groeneveld, J., Balbi, S., Nolzen, H., Müller, B., Schulze, J., Buchmann, C.M. (2016). Simple or complicated agent-based models? A complicated issue. Environmental Modelling & Software 86, 56-67. doi.

Schulze, J., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2016). Governmental response to climate risk: Model-based assessment of livestock supplementation in drylands. Land Use Policy 54, 47–57. doi.

Müller, B., Kreuer, D. (2016). Ecologists Should Care about Insurance, too. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 31(1), 1-2. doi.

Martin, R., Linstädter, A., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2016). Livelihood security in face of drought – Assessing the vulnerability of pastoral households. Environmental Modelling & Software 75, 414-423. doi.

Müller, B., Schulze, J., Kreuer, D., Linstädter, A., Frank, K. (2015). How to avoid unsustainable side effects of managing climate risk in drylands - The supplementary feeding controversy. Agricultural Systems 139, 153-165. doi.


Dressler, G., Robinson, L.W., Müller, B., Hase, N. (2016). The LUCID Model and Its Role in Supporting Land Use Planning Processes in Southern Ethiopia. ILRI Project Report, December 2016. More information:

Theses written and supervised within POLISES

Dreßler, G. (2016). Analyzing resource use decisions under global change by agent-based modelling. PhD thesis, University of Osnabrück. Link.

Hoffmann, F. (2014). Principles of Statistical Physics in Context of Natural Resources under Uncertainty: Insights from a Dynamical Multi-Agent-Based Model. Diploma thesis, University of Tübingen.

Steinicke, M. (2014). Weidenutzungsstrategien der Borana in Kenia, unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Wandelprozesse – Eine Analyse mittels agentenbasierter Modellierung. Bachelor’s thesis, University of Leipzig.

Earlier Project-Relevant Publications by Team Members


Jakoby, O., Quaas, M.F., Müller, B., Baumgärtner, S., Frank, K. (2014). How do individual farmers’ objectives influence their evaluation of rangeland management strategies under a variable climate? Journal of Applied Ecology 51(2), 483-493. doi.

Martin, R., Müller, B., Linstädter, A., Frank, K. (2014). How much climate change can pastoral livelihoods tolerate? Modelling rangeland use and evaluating risk. Global Environmental Change 24, 183-192. doi.

Müller, B., Bohn, F., Martin, R., Dressler, G., Groeneveld, J., Klassert, C., Schlüter, M., Schulze, J., Weise, H., Schwarz, N. (2013). Describing human decisions in agent-based models - ODD+D, an extension of the ODD protocol. Environmental Modelling & Software 48(0), 37-48. doi. pre-print (pdf)

Kreuer, D. (2011). Land Use Negotiation in Eastern Morocco. Nomadic Peoples 15(1), 54-69. doi.

Müller, B., Quaas, M.F., Frank, K., Baumgärtner, S. (2011). Pitfalls and Potential of Institutional Change: Rain-Index Insurance and the Sustainability of Rangeland Management. Ecological Economics 70, 2137-2144. doi. SSRN (preprint)

Monographs / Book chapters

Breuer, I., Kreuer, D. (2011). Market Spaces in a Globalizing Periphery: Livestock Trade, Borders, and Liberalisation in Eastern Morocco. In: Gertel, J. & LeHeron, R. (Eds.), Economic Spaces of Pastoral Production and Commodity Systems: Markets and Livelihoods. Ashgate, Farnham, 151-171.

Frank, K., Baumgärtner, S., Becker, C., Müller, B., Quaas, M. (2006). Ecological-economic models for sustainable grazing in semi-arid rangelands: between concepts and case studies. In: Leser, H. (Ed.), The Changing Culture and Nature of Namibia: Case Studies, Basler Afrika Bibliographien, Basel and Windhoek, 171 - 176.

Working Papers

Schlüter, M., Müller, B., Frank, K. (2013). How to use models to improve analysis and governance of social-ecological systems - the reference frame MORE, Working Paper, available at