Bartkowski, B., Schepanski, K., Bredenbeck, S., Müller, B. (2023). Wind erosion in European agricultural landscapes: More than physics. People Nat. 5 (1), 34 - 44. doi.

Wang, H.-H., van Voorn, G., Grant, W.E., Zare, F., Giupponi, C., Steinmann, P., Müller, B., Elsawah, S., van Delden, H., Athanasiadis, I.N., Sun, Z., Jager, W., Little, J.C., Jakeman, A.J. (2023). Scale decisions and good practices in socio-environmental systems modelling: guidance and documentation during problem scoping and model formulation. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 5 , art. 18563. doi.

Will, M., Groeneveld, J., Lenel, F., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2023). Determinants of household vulnerability in networks with formal insurance and informal risk-sharing. Ecol. Econ., 212, art. 107921, doi.


Anderies, J.M., Cumming, G.S., Clements, H.S., Lade, S.J., Seppelt, R., Chawla, S., Müller, B. (2022). A framework for conceptualizing and modeling social-ecological systems for conservation research. Biol. Conserv., 275, art. 109769, doi.

Dressler, G., Groeneveld, J., Hetzer, J., Janischewski, A., Nolzen, H., Rödig, E., Schwarz, N., Taubert, F., Thober, J., Will, M., Williams, T., Wirth, S.B., Müller, B. (2022). Upscaling in socio-environmental systems modelling: Current challenges, promising strategies and insights from ecology. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 4, art. 18112. doi.

Will, M., Groeneveld, J., Lenel, F., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2023). Determinants of Household Vulnerability in Networks with Formal Insurance and Informal Risk-Sharing. Ecological Economics, 212, 107921. doi.

Bartkowski, B., Schüßler, C., Müller, B., (2022). Typologies of European farmers: approaches, methods and research gaps. Regional Environmental Change 22 (2), art. 43. doi.

Jäger, F., Rudnick, J., Lubell, M., Kraus, M., Müller, B. (2022). Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Investigate Farmer Behavior and Policy Interventions for Improved Nitrogen Management. Environmental Management 69, 1153–1166.  doi.

Williams, T.G., Brown, D.G., Guikema, S.D., Logan, T.M., Magliocca, N.R., Müller, B., Steger, C.E., (2022). Integrating equity considerations into agent-based modeling: A conceptual framework and practical guidance. JASSS 25 (3), art. 1. doi.

Will, M., Backes, A., Campenni, M., Cronk, L., Dressler, G., Gornott, C., Groeneveld, J., Habtemariam, L. T., Kraehnert, K., Kraus, M., Lenel, F., Osgood, D., Taye, M., Müller, B. (2022). Improving the design of climate insurance: combining empirical approaches and modelling. Climate and Development, 14:9, 804-813. doi.


Care, O., Bernstein, M.J., Chapman, M., Diaz Reviriego, I., Dressler, G., Felipe-Lucia, M.R., Friis, C., Graham, S., Hänke, H., Haider, L.J., Hernández-Morcillo, M., Hoffmann, H., Kernecker, M., Nicol, P., Piñeiro, C., Pitt, H., Schill, C., Seufert, V., Shu, K., Valencia, V., Zaehringer, J.G. (2021). Creating leadership collectives for sustainability transformations. Sustain. Sci. 16 (2), 703 - 708. doi.

Williams, T. G., Dressler, G., Stratton, A., Müller, B. (2021). Ecological and financial strategies provide complementary benefits for smallholder climate resilience: insights from a simulation model. Ecology and Society 26(2):14. doi.

Will, M., Dressler, G., Kreuer, D., Thulke, H.‐H., Grêt‐Regamey, A., Müller, B. (2021). How to make socio‐environmental modelling more useful to support policy and management? People and Nature, 3: 560-572. doi.

Will, M., Groeneveld, J., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2021). Informal risk-sharing between smallholders may be threatened by formal insurance: Lessons from a stylized agent-based model. PLOS ONE, 16, e0248757. doi.

Habtemariam, L. T., Will, M., Müller, B. (2021). Agricultural insurance through the lens of rural household dietary diversity. Global Food Security, 28, 100485. doi.


Cumming, G.S., Epstein, G., Anderies, J.M., Apetrei, C.I., Baggio, J., Bodin, Ö., Chawla, S., Clements, H.S., Cox, M., Egli, L., Gurney, G.G., Lubell, M., Magliocca, N., Morrison, T.H., Müller, B., Seppelt, R., Schlüter, M., Unnikrishnan, H., Villamayor-Tomas, S., Weible, C.M. (2020). Advancing understanding of natural resource governance: a post-Ostrom research agenda. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 44, 26-34. doi.

Müller, B., Hoffmann, F., Heckelei, T., Müller, C., Hertel, T.W., Polhill, J.G., van Wijk, M., Achterbosch, T., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Kreuer, D., Ewert, F., Ge, J., Millington, J.D.A., Seppelt, R., Verburg, P.H., Webber, H. (2020). Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale. Global Environmental Change 63, art. 102085. doi.

Rahimi Balkanlou, K., Müller, B., Cord, A.F., Panahi, F., Malekian, A., Jafari, M., Egli, L. (2020). Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services provision in a degraded ecosystem: A systematic assessment in the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Science of The Total Environment 716 , art. 137100. doi.

Will, M., Groeneveld, J., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2020). Combining social network analysis and agent-based modelling to explore dynamics of human interaction: A review. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling 2, art. 16325. doi.


Klein, J.A., Tucker, C.M., Nolin, A.W., Hopping, K.A., Reid, R.S., Steger, C., Grêt‐Regamey, A., Lavorel, S., Müller, B., Yeh, E.T., Boone, R.B., Bougeron, P., Bustic, V., Castellanos, E., Chen, X., Dong, S.K., Greenwood, G., Keiler, M., Marchant, R., Seidl, R., Spies, T., Thorn, J., Yager, K. (2019). Catalyzing Transformations to Sustainability in the World's Mountains. Earth’s Future. doi.

Klein, J.A., Tucker, C.M., Steger, C.E., Nolin, A., Reid, R., Hopping, K.A., Yeh, E.T., Pradhan, M.S., Taber, A., Molden, D., Ghate, R., Choudhury, D., Alcántara-Ayala, I., Lavorel, S., Müller, B., Grêt-Regamey, A., Boone, R.B., Bourgeron, P., Castellanos, E., Chen, X., Dong, S., Keiler, M., Seidl, R., Thorn, J., Yager, K. (2019). An integrated community and ecosystem-based approach to disaster risk reduction in mountain systems. Environmental Science & Policy 94, 143-152. doi.

Schlüter, M., Müller, B., Frank, K. (2019). The potential of models and modeling for social-ecological systems research: the reference frame ModSES. Ecology and Society 24(1), 31. doi.

John, F., Toth, R., Frank, K., Groeneveld, J., Müller, B. (2019). Ecological Vulnerability Through Insurance? Potential Unintended Consequences of Livestock Drought Insurance. Ecological Economics 157, 357-368. doi.

Dressler, G., Hoffmann, F., Breuer, I., Kreuer, D., Mahdi, M., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2019). Polarization in (post)nomadic resource use in Eastern Morocco: insights using a multi-agent simulation model. Regional Environmental Change 19(2), 489-500. doi.

Dressler, G., Groeneveld, J., Buchmann, C.M., Guo, C., Hase, N., Thober, J., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2019). Implications of behavioral change for the resilience of pastoral systems—Lessons from an agent-based model. Ecological Complexity 40. doi.


Huber, R., Bakker, M., Balmann, A., Berger, T., Bithell, M., Brown, C., Grêt-Regamey, A., Xiong, H., Le, Q.B., Mack, G., Meyfroidt, P., Millington, J., Müller, B., Polhill, J.G., Sun, Z., Seidl, R., Troost, C., Finger, R. (2018). Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models. Agricultural Systems 167, 143-160. doi.


Müller, B., Johnson, L., Kreuer, D. (2017). Maladaptive outcomes of climate insurance in agriculture. Global Environmental Change 46, 23-33. doi. Interactive map.

Schulze, J., Müller, B., Groeneveld, J., Grimm, V. (2017). Agent-Based Modelling of Social-Ecological Systems: Achievements, Challenges, and a Way Forward. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20(2), 8. doi.

Groeneveld, J., Müller, B., Buchmann, C.M., Dressler, G., Guo, C., Hase, J. N., Hoffmann, F., John, F., Klassert, C., Lauf, T., Liebelt, V., Nolzen, H., Pannicke, N., Schulze, J., Weise, H., Schwarz, N. (2017). Theoretical foundations of human decision-making in agent-based land use models – A review. Environmental Modelling & Software 87, 39-48. doi.

Schlüter, M., Baeza, A., Dressler, G., Frank, K., Groeneveld, J., Jager, W., Janssen, M.A., McAllister, R.R.J., Müller, B., Orach, K., Schwarz, N., Wijermans, N. (2017). A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems. Ecological Economics 131, 21-35. doi.


Sun, Z., Lorscheid, I., Millington, J.D., Lauf, S., Magliocca, N.R., Groeneveld, J., Balbi, S., Nolzen, H., Müller, B., Schulze, J., Buchmann, C.M. (2016). Simple or complicated agent-based models? A complicated issue. Environmental Modelling & Software 86, 56-67. doi.

Schulze, J., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2016). Governmental response to climate risk: Model-based assessment of livestock supplementation in drylands. Land Use Policy 54, 47–57. doi.

Müller, B., Kreuer, D. (2016). Ecologists Should Care about Insurance, too. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 31(1), 1-2. doi.

Martin, R., Linstädter, A., Frank, K., Müller, B. (2016). Livelihood security in face of drought – Assessing the vulnerability of pastoral households. Environmental Modelling & Software 75, 414-423. doi.


Müller, B., Schulze, J., Kreuer, D., Linstädter, A., Frank, K. (2015). How to avoid unsustainable side effects of managing climate risk in drylands - The supplementary feeding controversy. Agricultural Systems 139, 153-165. doi.


Müller, B., Johnson, L., Kreuer, D. (2017). Risks of maladaptation: climate insurance in agriculture. Briefing Paper 22/2017. German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE). Link.

Dressler, G., Robinson, L.W., Müller, B., Hase, N. (2016). The LUCID Model and Its Role in Supporting Land Use Planning Processes in Southern Ethiopia. ILRI Project Report, December 2016. More information:

Theses written and supervised within POLISES

Mustelin, K. (2022). Livelihood security in the face of looming desertification: exploring long-term social-ecological dynamics using an agent-based model, Master's thesis, Sustainability Science, Leuphana University Lüneburg.

Vogel, H. (2022). Property Regimes of Pastoralist Systems. Master's thesis. Department of Physics, Stockholm University.

Will, M. (2021). Socio-environmental modelling for sustainable development : exploring the interplay of formal insurance and risk-sharing networks. PhD thesis, University of Osnabrück.

Hammer, L. (2020). Analyzing mechanisms of poverty trap formation using agent-based modelling, Master's thesis, Philipps-University Marburg.

Backes, A. (2020). Network Effects on the Diffusion of Microinsurance Products – An Agent-Based Model Approach. Master's thesis, University of Leipzig.

Grcondciel, F. (2018). Applying non-linear dynamic system analysis to investigate the emergence of poverty traps. Master’s thesis, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg.

Gelsmann-Kaspers, H. (2017). Comparison of different pastoral strategies to cope with climate risk using social-ecological modelling. Master’s thesis, University of Osnabrück.

Dreßler, G. (2017). Analyzing resource use decisions under global change by agent-based modelling. PhD thesis, University of Osnabrück. Link.

Hoffmann, F. (2014). Principles of Statistical Physics in Context of Natural Resources under Uncertainty: Insights from a Dynamical Multi-Agent-Based Model. Diploma thesis, University of Tübingen.

Steinicke, M. (2014). Weidenutzungsstrategien der Borana in Kenia, unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Wandelprozesse – Eine Analyse mittels agentenbasierter Modellierung. Bachelor’s thesis, University of Leipzig.

Earlier Project-Relevant Publications by Team Members


Jakoby, O., Quaas, M.F., Müller, B., Baumgärtner, S., Frank, K. (2014). How do individual farmers’ objectives influence their evaluation of rangeland management strategies under a variable climate? Journal of Applied Ecology 51(2), 483-493. doi.

Martin, R., Müller, B., Linstädter, A., Frank, K. (2014). How much climate change can pastoral livelihoods tolerate? Modelling rangeland use and evaluating risk. Global Environmental Change 24, 183-192. doi.

Müller, B., Bohn, F., Martin, R., Dressler, G., Groeneveld, J., Klassert, C., Schlüter, M., Schulze, J., Weise, H., Schwarz, N. (2013). Describing human decisions in agent-based models - ODD+D, an extension of the ODD protocol. Environmental Modelling & Software 48(0), 37-48. doi. pre-print (pdf)

Kreuer, D. (2011). Land Use Negotiation in Eastern Morocco. Nomadic Peoples 15(1), 54-69. doi.

Müller, B., Quaas, M.F., Frank, K., Baumgärtner, S. (2011). Pitfalls and Potential of Institutional Change: Rain-Index Insurance and the Sustainability of Rangeland Management. Ecological Economics 70, 2137-2144. doi. SSRN (preprint)

Monographs / Book chapters

Breuer, I., Kreuer, D. (2011). Market Spaces in a Globalizing Periphery: Livestock Trade, Borders, and Liberalisation in Eastern Morocco. In: Gertel, J. & LeHeron, R. (Eds.), Economic Spaces of Pastoral Production and Commodity Systems: Markets and Livelihoods. Ashgate, Farnham, 151-171.

Frank, K., Baumgärtner, S., Becker, C., Müller, B., Quaas, M. (2006). Ecological-economic models for sustainable grazing in semi-arid rangelands: between concepts and case studies. In: Leser, H. (Ed.), The Changing Culture and Nature of Namibia: Case Studies, Basler Afrika Bibliographien, Basel and Windhoek, 171 - 176.